Jan 14 2007:
The following shows that there has been actually a coup and a counter coup. A very similar scenerio as in 1990 with Gorbachev and Yeltsin. It confirms that US first attempt at a coup has failed. We do not know the details of military operations of the coup or the counter coup but we can see indications that there has been major changes in the power structure of the regime in Tehran. We will know more about the the shift of the power within the military and its implications for the regime in Tehran in near future. It is interesting that Iran's secretary of defense was in Sudan and President Ahmadinejad was in Venezuela during the coup and counter coup period. Two leading members of Iran's national security agency were in Arbil, Iraq and were arrested by the American forces.
The Shah's regime preceding the current regime was based on a coalition of modern western elements composed of western educated intelligensia and the traditional elements based on clergy inherited from the its past. The Shia clergy was the creation of Saffavids in 15 century.The current regime eliminated the modern western elements and monopolized the power. So what can replace the current regime?
The only option that can replace the current regime is also a coalition of western intelligensia and the traditional elements. The only major difference with the previous Shah's regime is the elimination of one major component of the previous Shah's regime. That is the elimination of Azeri Turk element which made the Shah's regime very unstable. The Azeri Turk element within the state in Iran has introduced an incompatible and foreign culture into the state and has re-defined all conflicts into ethnic conflict between the native-persian element on one side and Azeri Turk element on the other side. That is why no democracy is possible as long as these Azeri Turks are present within the state power. Democracy itself within the current form of the state in Iran will not only solve any conflicts but on the contrary increase the level of the conflict on all levels of the state.
The creation of an Azeri Turk state and separation of Azeri Turks from Iran is the first step to achieve a stable democracy in Iran.
The following shows that there has been actually a coup and a counter coup. A very similar scenerio as in 1990 with Gorbachev and Yeltsin. It confirms that US first attempt at a coup has failed. We do not know the details of military operations of the coup or the counter coup but we can see indications that there has been major changes in the power structure of the regime in Tehran. We will know more about the the shift of the power within the military and its implications for the regime in Tehran in near future. It is interesting that Iran's secretary of defense was in Sudan and President Ahmadinejad was in Venezuela during the coup and counter coup period. Two leading members of Iran's national security agency were in Arbil, Iraq and were arrested by the American forces.
- 1.The former President Mr. Rafsanjani declared today a collective leadership committee has been formed in Iran. This indicates a change in the power center within the state.
- 2. Mr. Larijani the President of National Security agency of Iran went to Saudi Arabia. Mr. Larijani did not have any authority ot discuss anything until yesterday.
- 3. The head of Iraq's Security Agency visited Tehran. This is the first time for such visit, even bombs have been going off everyday in Iraq for several years.
- 4. Hillary Clinton went to Iraq and Afghanistan. She requested increased troops for Afghanistan but no increase for Iraq. In other words the centers of power in Iran is shifting to Eastern Iran from the current western Azeri dominated regime in Tehran. Iran is divided into Eastern Iran and Western Iran based on ethnic division of Azeri Turks vs. Persians.
- 5. Arab Stock markets in Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait crashed Today. This indicates a major shift of power from Arab states in the region to Iran.
- 6. The mass media in Iran have started talking about the declining popularity and the power of Mr. Ahmadinjeda due to rising prices. There has been calls for his resignation in the parliament.
- 7. There have been reports of large number of plane crashes invovling high ranking military and IRGC forces (Paramilitary forces).
- 8. Mr. Ahmadinejad anti-Russian policies have posed great danger to Russians in Central Asia. See the article on Iran and Turkemnistan.
- 9. Mr. Ahmadinejad pro-Pakistani policies have alienated both India and Afghanistan. Mr. Ahmadinejad supports Taliban and the warlord Mr. Hekmatyar.
- 10. Mr. Ahmadinejad presenting himself both as a Pan-Turk and Persian nationalist has tended to undermine his credibility with the Persian population and moved him into the Pan-Turk camp. This is despite his trips to different regions in Iran and trying to mobilize people in support of his policies.
- 11. Mr. Ahmadinejad has allied itself closely with Tehran police chief and the Republic of Azerbaijan. It indicates that Tehran with the majority Azeri Turk population and the Republic of Azerbaijan are Mr. Ahmadinejad real base of power. Mr. Ahmadinejad cut off the natural gas delivery both to Turkey and Armenia and parts of Iran and redirected Gas delivery to the Republic of Azerbaijan which has led to protests by Turkey.
- 12 Mr. Ahmadinejad policy on Iraq has been the close alliance with Syria and Mughtada Sadr in Baghdad which has alienated both the Kurds in North and Shias in south of Iraq.
- 12a. The failure of coup in Iran has led to the demise of the Mahdi army of Mughtada Sadr in Iraq. See the article below.
- The Speaker of Parliament has apeared wearing a tie for the first time. His picture wearing a tie was published in the domestic mass media. No government official has used a tie in the last 27 years since 1979.
- In a major shake up in the presidential palace in Kabul, Afghanistan. President Hamid Karzai has removed Jawed Ludin, his British educated chief of staff, and replaced him with his predecessor in the job, the Daily Telegraph has learnt. Mr Ludin was forced to resign this morning, senior officials in the Afghan cabinet said. This might indicate the removal of pro-ahmadinejad figure in Afghanistan.
- The above analysis shows the reasons for the weakening of the Ahmadinejad government and the reason for looking for a coup as a way out option. The coup failed and led to a counter coup by the rival faction.
The Shah's regime preceding the current regime was based on a coalition of modern western elements composed of western educated intelligensia and the traditional elements based on clergy inherited from the its past. The Shia clergy was the creation of Saffavids in 15 century.The current regime eliminated the modern western elements and monopolized the power. So what can replace the current regime?
The only option that can replace the current regime is also a coalition of western intelligensia and the traditional elements. The only major difference with the previous Shah's regime is the elimination of one major component of the previous Shah's regime. That is the elimination of Azeri Turk element which made the Shah's regime very unstable. The Azeri Turk element within the state in Iran has introduced an incompatible and foreign culture into the state and has re-defined all conflicts into ethnic conflict between the native-persian element on one side and Azeri Turk element on the other side. That is why no democracy is possible as long as these Azeri Turks are present within the state power. Democracy itself within the current form of the state in Iran will not only solve any conflicts but on the contrary increase the level of the conflict on all levels of the state.
The creation of an Azeri Turk state and separation of Azeri Turks from Iran is the first step to achieve a stable democracy in Iran.
2 comments:
Only spies and top agents have such detailed information of past, present and future.
Alternative to ayatullas in afghanistan is that California and Texas be separated from USA and given to Afghan and other middle east people to live there in peace.
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