Coup attempt in Iran
The US raid on Iranian Consulate in Iraq might have been a coup attemtp within Iran.
The reasons for the coup attempt in Iran in last few days has the following background :
US policy on Iraq
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, joined by US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, yesterday described to two committees of the US House of Representative, which now lies under Democrat Party control, some of the various regional scenarios which might well unfold if Washington is unsuccessful in its Iraqi mission.
Speaking to members of the House of Representative Foreign Affairs Committee, Rice touched on the problems which could occur between Turkey and the Kurds if Iraqi Kurds decide to split off from the rest of Iraq. Rice also said that it was within the context of the various dynamics at play within Iraq between the Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds that the US had decided to make it policy to support the unity of Iraqi soil, post-invasion.
Factionalism in Iran
There are two ruling factions in Iran. One supports an independent Kurdistan in Iraq and the other supports a centralized state under Prime Minister Mr. Maleki and Moghtada Sadr which is the US policy.
One of the people who were arrested were Mr. Abbasi: See below for info on Mr. Abbasi.
The regime in Tehran under the leadership of MR. Ahmadinejad relies on Mr. Maleki and Moghtada Sadr to carry out its policies. Those people want a centralized Iraq.
The other faction which is represented by Mr. Abbasi had established a consular offfice in Arbil, Iraqi Kurdistan. That shows they wanted to recognize Kurdish autonomy in North. This contradicted Mr. Ahmadinejad policy in Iraq.
- Mr. Ahmadinejad faction has expressed joy over the arrest of MR. Abbasi through their satelite TV Rangarang broadcast from Washington.
- Also Turkey has declared in last few days that they might invade Northern Iraq on the question of Kirkuk oil.
- According to Rangarang TV, the information on Mr. Abbasi location was an inside job provided by sources within Iranian government.
- Mr. Ahmadinejad had immediately left (or fled) to Venezuela the same day. It seems that MR. Ahmadinejad was involved in turning in MR. Abbasi to American authorities.
- Immediately after the raid there was a rocket attack on US embassy in Greece after the arrest of Mr. Abbasi, very likely connected with these events. The mass media in Tehran published this news 4 hours before the CNN even reported it.
- The same day Mr. Ahmadinejad left for Venezuela, there were three big explosions in Khoramshahr in Khuzestan next to Abadan on the border of Iran , Iraq and Kuwait. The tehran regime is most likely behind explosions blaming Arabs.
- Russia published a statement and condemned US for the raid on the Iranian Consulate in Arbil, Iraq.
- According to information the Kurds in Iraq had blocked the path to Airport for Americans and requested that Mr. Abbasi to be released. The kurds were part of MR. Barazani forces.
- Also the rumor that Ayatollah Khamnei is dead had been started by Mr. Ahmadinejad just before these events as part of psychological warfare to weaken the rival faction.
- US strategy in Iraq has been the creation of Sunni and Shia identity and re-defining Arab-Israeli dividing line in the Middle East into a Shia-Sunni dividing line. This way US would emerge as an arbiter of events in the Middle East. Mr. Ahmadinejad would serve this purpose. See the article by Lutwak below.
The US policy in Iraq has reached a dead end. Either the Americans have to recognize the three automonous regions in south, center and North. That is Shias in south, Kurds in North and sunnis in center or have a centralized regime.
First case would attract a Turkish invasion of the north. And Iranian influence in the south.
The second case would be the restoration of Saddam regime.
The Americans support the restoration of Saddam regime without Saddam. Mughtada Sadr is going to be the new Saddam.
To do that they need to eliminate the opposition not only in Iraq but also in Iran. Mr. Ahmadinejad is Iran's Mughtada Sadr for Iran. So for US there is no other way than to either start a coup in Iran or invade on the behalf of their clients in Iran.
For above reasons US would support a coup by Mr. Ahmadinejad against the other faction
It seems this incident has far reaching consequences within Iran and it can trigger a coup, or a counter coup or even a civil war. A coup scenario migh have even started already by Mr. Ahmadinejad.