Iran: Middle East and Central Asia

TURKEY INTEL PREDICTS DEMISE OF M.E. STATES January 16 2007 at 7:29 PM
ANKARA [MENL] -- The Turkish intelligence community envisions the demise of Iraq and several other Middle East states by 2015. Turkish sources said the intelligence community has issued an assessment that predicted the collapse of several Middle East countries torn by ethnic and religious tension. The community has urged the government to prepare for such a scenario. "In this period that we are currently in, we will see the process by which many nations will lose the marathon of history," National Intelligence Organization Undersecretary Emre Taner said. Taner was reflecting a threat analysis drafted by the organization, known by its Turkish acronym, MIT. In an address on Jan. 5, Taner warned that several Middle East states could soon collapse, which would imperil Turkey as well. http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2007/january/01_17_1.html Iran-Watch.com Russia versus Iran/US in Turkmenistan In a matter of weeks, as Iran’s influence spreads, Russian President/dictator Vladimir Putin is taking up the US role as power broker in the Middle East. As a result, Russia and Iran are facing confrontation in the Middle East. Now, in a major new crisis with the demise of President Niyazov in Turkmenistan, Russia and Iran are facing confrontation in Central Asia. What is called the “Great Game” between Russia and Iran for control of Central Asia’s vast energy resources is underway with this political transition in Turkmenistan. Good. Antagonism between Russia and Iran is an essential precondition for international stability. The US cannot or will not contain Iran. In fact, the US increasingly seems comfortable in the role of Iran’s junior partner. The US is running interference for Iran in the Middle East, Iraq, and Central Asia, while Iran consolidates for the long term gains. To put it another way, US appeasement of Iran in the Middle East and Central Asia forces Russia to confront Iran. In this regard, the crises in Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, and Iraq have claimed Putin’s attention in recent weeks after Iran scored gains, unopposed by the US. President Putin stepped in by inviting Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora and Syrian president Assad to Moscow last week for immediate consultations. Russia was advancing in the Middle East after years of being absent as a major player. President Putin did so because he was unhappy with Iran’s adventurism, as evidenced by Iran’s support for confrontational policies by Hamas and Hezbollah. Moreover, Syria, who has long been Russia’s closest ally in the region, was telling Putin that Iran was fast becoming a threat to Iraq and the Arab states in general. Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad warned Putin against Iran’s presence in Iraq and called for Arab solidarity against Iran. While the US remained passive, Russia was emerging as the counterweight to Iran in the Middle East. Russia was already the counterweight to Iran in Central Asia. Under Russian prodding, Iran was excluded earlier this year from full membership (and therefore security guarantees) in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Central Asia’s NATO. The financial stakes for Russia and Iran are very high in Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan is a major supplier of natural gas to Gazprom, who in turn supplies Ukraine. In this context, the loss of Russsian access to Turkmenistan’s natural gas would be seen a major national security threat for Putin. As far as Iran is concerned, a breakthrough in relation with Turkmenistan would significantly weaken Russia’s entire policy of containing Iran in Central Asia. The US in recent years has been acting in tandem with Iran’s policy of opening up Turkmenistan. The US has established a major military base in Turkmenistan, much to Russia’s discomfort. Will Russia stand alone with a policy designed to contain Iran in Iraq and Central Asia? The good news is that Turkey is a natural partner for Russia in a Contain Iran policy. Like Russia, Turkey sees great danger from Iran’s presence in Iraq. Iran, with US support, is behind Kurdish aspirations for an independent state. Turkey, along with Russia, views the an independent Kurdistan and breakup of Iraq into two or more states as bringing disaster to the Middle East. Turkey, in short, like Russia, is on a collision course with Iran. To contain Iran, Turkey and Russia are already coordinating policy on Iraq. President Putin and Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan also need to coordinate policy on the Middle East and Central Asia. Turkey should offer Russia full support as the political transition in Turkmenistan unfolds. Iran and the US will be making mischief there, but a Russian-Turkish coalition would secure Turkmenistan and Central Asia, in a major setback for Iran. Moreover, Russia and Turkey should not despair of gaining eventual US support for a Contain Iran policy, even in Turkmenistan.